What Is the Most Likely Explanation for a Congressional District to Change Shape?

1.So, congressional districts and state districts are being redrawn. Who cares?

You should! Changes to district maps can alter the remainder of ability in Congress and in the states. The new maps last for a decade. They can give i party an unfair advantage — in each country, and nationwide. And redistricting contributes to political polarization past making elections less competitive.

This year, with an extremely slim Democratic margin in the House of Representatives, but redrawing maps in a few key states could decide control of Congress in 2022.

House of Representatives party breakup

218 for control

Source: U.Southward. House of Representatives Press Gallery

2.OK, you have my attention. So what is redistricting?

Information technology's the redrawing of the boundaries of congressional and country legislative districts. It happens every x years, after the census, to reverberate the changes in population. And data from the 2020 demography, delayed by the pandemic, was just released in Baronial.

Over time, districts proceeds or lose population. That gives a voter in a district with a bigger population less of a say than a voter in a sparsely populated district. New maps are drawn to go along the population in each congressional district roughly even.

three.That doesn't sound and then bad.

Nope, not in theory. But it is an intensely political process, and can alter the fairness of elections earlier any votes are bandage. District lines can exist redrawn to favor one political party or the other, to protect incumbent elected officials, or to help — or harm — a specific demographic group.

Abuse of the arrangement is responsible for a host of political ills, especially polarization.

Agreement redistricting is essential to understanding just how much a vote actually counts.

4.Got it. So how does this work?

Redistricting starts with the census, the federal authorities's comprehensive count of the country'due south population and its changing demographics.

The demography dictates how many seats in Congress each country volition get, which is why some states gain or lose seats in the Business firm of Representatives every ten years. That reshuffling is known as reapportionment.

Mapmakers and then work to ensure that a state's congressional districts all have roughly the same number of residents, to ensure equal representation in the House of Representatives. They besides practice the same for the districts of state legislators.

That requires moving the borders of districts — or calculation new districts and subtracting erstwhile ones — to reach population parity.

Congressional seat changes past state after the 2020 census

5.Is that it?

Not quite. While the bones mission is simple — ensuring equitable representation — in that location are some rules of the road. The Voting Rights Act of 1965 forbids "dilution" of the votes of people of color: Maps may not exist drawn to limit such voters' power to elect their own representatives.

Many states have other criteria: keeping districts geographically contiguous and compact, ensuring that elections will be competitive, or safeguarding partisan "fairness" — and then districts reflect statewide voting trends rather than giving one political party an unearned advantage.

Voting Rights Act of 1965

The landmark Voting Rights Act prohibited racial discrimination in voting and ushered in a host of new protections. Racial gerrymandering was forbidden, and states with a history of discrimination at the polls had to go clearance from the Justice Department earlier changing voting laws or drawing new maps. By the terminate of 1965, 250,000 new Black voters had registered.

vi.Who draws the new maps?

Each state has its own process. 11 states leave the mapmaking to an exterior panel. Merely about — 39 states — have state lawmakers draw the new maps for Congress. (Half dozen states will have but one Firm seat, and so they have no congressional districts to draw.)

Command of redistricting

7.Wait, state legislators tin can draw their own districts? Won't they exist biased?

Yes, and this is i way that redistricting becomes then politicized. Partisan mapmakers oftentimes motion district lines — subtly or egregiously — to cluster voters in a mode that advances a political goal, like helping their party or bolstering an incumbent's chances of re-election.

That allows a political political party to cull its voters, rather than the voters choosing their representatives. And it oft leaves a legislature with a partisan slant that doesn't represent the statewide political residual.

Take Wisconsin: In 2018, former Gov. Scott Walker, a Republican, lost by less than 30,000 votes statewide, a margin of just 1 percentage point. But Republicans however won 63 of the 99 State Assembly districts.

That's a sign of a highly gerrymandered map.

Wisconsin'southward 2018 election

Sources: Ballotpedia; New York Times 2018 election results

8.Gerry-what?

Gerrymandered. It's a word with a funny back story. We'll get to that later. Simply in uncomplicated terms, it refers to the intentional distortion of a map of political districts to give one party an reward.

9.How can i side go such an border from a map?

While all districts must have roughly the same population, mapmakers can make subjective decisions on how to describe the boundaries, and how to group voters in a commune, to create a partisan tilt. Let's look at a unproblematic illustration.

Click through to come across how it works.

Suppose a country has 25 voters who alive in a perfect grid. 60 percent of them belong to the Bluish party, and 40 percent to the Blood-red party.

Say the country has five House seats. We demand districts roughly the same size. We tin describe them to fairly reverberate the population: Bluish gets three seats, Red gets two seats.

But what if we want to give Bluish the advantage? If we draw the districts like this, Blue holds a majority in all five districts.

Now, let's draw a map that helps the Red political party. We'll demand to get artistic, since information technology's in the minority. But cheque out what happens if we draw the districts this way.

There are many ways to slice and die districts, but two methods of gerrymandering are used most often: "cracking" and "packing."

10.That sounds catchy. What's 'bang-up'?

Not bad is when mapmakers break up a cluster of a certain blazon of voters — people from a specific demographic group, or but affiliated with the opposing party — and spread them amidst several districts, diluting their vote rather than assuasive them to exert a larger influence in fewer districts or even a single commune.

This is a common tactic in densely populated areas, and is oftentimes described equally "pizza slicing," as if the metropolis were the middle of a pizza cut up narrowly at the urban cadre along lines radiating outward.

Click through to see how cracking works.

Let's consider a slightly bigger state, with 50 people, simply still just v districts. Say 64 percent of the state votes Red and 36 percent votes Bluish.

But the Carmine political party controls the redistricting process, and wants to proceeds an reward.

By "not bad" the Blue voters, mapmakers could break upward the Blue vote so that Red ends up with a majority in all five districts.

11.Wow. And what's 'packing'?

Packing is when maps are fatigued to cram the members of a demographic group, like Black voters, or voters in the opposing political party, into ane district or as few districts equally possible. That leaves their numbers in the other districts as well scant to win elections. This is how many states, primarily in the South, sought to limit the influence of Black voters over the decades before the introduction of the Voting Rights Deed.

Click through to meet how packing works.

This time, let's say the Blue party enjoys 64 percent support statewide, and the Red political party 36 percent.

The Blue party controls redistricting and does not want to worry well-nigh competitive elections.

Rather than cracking Ruby-red voters, the Blue party packs as many Crimson voters as it tin can into one district. The Blue political party can carve out four very safe seats, leaving the Ruby party with 1.

12.Wow! Can you give some existent-life examples of how this works?

Absolutely. Perchance no city in America was more than cracked than Austin, Tex., the simply U.S. urban center of less than a million residents that was divided among six congressional districts. In the 2020 election, President Biden won Travis County, which includes Austin, by 45 percentage points. But 5 of Austin's six congressional seats are occupied by Republicans.

Toggle between the two maps to see how Austin was cracked.

2020 Vote Share

2011 District Map

This is the surface area around Austin represented by how people voted in the 2020 ballot. Yous'll see a big area of blue that fades into some smaller pockets and expanses of red in the rural areas.

In the 2020 ballot, Autonomous votes in Austin were cracked into multiple districts reaching into conservative areas. There are most 435,000 Autonomous voters in Travis County, and only about 160,000 Republicans — but only ane Democratic representative.

13.Got information technology. But where's a good example of packing?

Well, we can really turn right back to Austin. After decades of not bad Austin apart, the city's Autonomous vote was growing besides big to be diluted by surrounding rural areas. Those Republican seats threatened to tip Democratic. So Republican legislators inverse their strategy.

Toggle betwixt the two maps to see how Austin was packed.

2020 Vote Share

2021 District Map

Republicans drew a new district (37) that was 75 percent Democratic, segregating Democratic votes and preserving the Republican tilt of the surrounding districts. Simply put, they conceded one seat to save the others.

This is how packing works. Democratic voters are packed into one district (37) — a new island of blue among districts that are once more solidly Republican.

14.All right. Great and packing — is that information technology?

No, there are other tricks.

Take Oregon's new congressional maps. The state gained a seat in reapportionment, and the Democrats who control the State Legislature decided to take hold of it. They broke upward heavily Autonomous Portland — carved up into three districts since 2011 — into four districts, forking outward into rural areas in the land. That should give the party a five-to-1 advantage in the congressional delegation.

Toggle between the 2 maps to see how Oregon added a Autonomous seat.

2011 Oregon Map

2021 Oregon Map

In redistricting after the 2010 census, the Oregon Legislature divided metropolitan Portland into iii of the land'south v congressional districts (1,3,five). Everything east of the Pour Mountains went into a solidly Republican commune ( 2 ), while southwestern Oregon was a Autonomous-leaning competitive district.

Sources: New York Times 2020 election results; Princeton Gerrymandering Project

This year, Oregon Democrats pressed their reward. They split Portland into iv districts (1,iii,5,half-dozen), including one reaching beyond the Cascades to Curve (v), a Democratic urban center. The southwestern district (iv) added more than Autonomous areas, putting information technology out of achieve for Republicans.

Sources: New York Times 2020 election results; Princeton Gerrymandering Project

15.Well, this sounds bad. What does information technology practice to the political procedure?

Simply put, information technology makes elections less fair. The mapmakers' party can seize such an advantage that November elections get foregone conclusions. Take North Carolina in 2012, after the country enacted an aggressively gerrymandered map. Democrats won 50.half dozen percent of the statewide congressional vote, but only four out of xiii Firm seats. (Federal courts eventually forced the country to redraw the map — twice.)

Due north Carolina 2012 Election

Source: New York Times 2012 election results

This played out across the country a decade ago, subsequently Republicans took over control of dozens of statehouses in the 2010 midterm elections and, in that yr's redistricting bicycle, were able to draw many more than maps than Democrats.

The consequence? In 2012, as President Barack Obama sailed to re-election, Democrats received ane.4 million more votes than Republicans for the Business firm of Representatives. But Republicans retained command of the House by a wide margin, 234 seats to 201.

sixteen.This sounds equally if it should be illegal. Is information technology?

Yes and no. In 2019, the Supreme Court ruled in Rucho v. Common Cause that the federal courts have no role to play in blocking partisan gerrymanders.

However, the court left intact parts of the Voting Rights Act that prohibit racial or ethnic gerrymandering. Districts where people of colour are in the bulk are often referred to as V.R.A. districts, and breaking them up is well-nigh certain to draw a lawsuit.

States have oft been forced to redraw maps found to have violated the Voting Rights Act or the equal protection clause of the Constitution. Pennsylvania had to redraw its congressional maps in 2018; Texas has had to redraw at least some of its maps every decade since the passage of the Voting Rights Human activity.

Rucho vs. Mutual Cause, 2019

Afterward a long courtroom battle over North Carolina'due south maps, the Supreme Court found that "partisan gerrymandering claims present political questions beyond the attain of the federal courts," though it said nothing virtually the state courts. Racial gerrymandering, prohibited by the Voting Rights Human activity, remained illegal.

17.OK, then in that location is some protection.

Again, yes and no. Since Rucho, mapmakers could insist that a racial gerrymander was merely a partisan gerrymander if the racial group in question voted predominantly for one political party.

Take Georgia, where Black voters make up nearly a tertiary of the voting population and 88 per centum of them supported Mr. Biden.

If Republicans in Georgia try to crack or pack predominantly Black districts, they could debate that their intent is simply partisan, not racist.

(Some lower courts have held that gerrymandering that dilutes the vote of a minority group is unconstitutional regardless of intent, but the argument remains in a legal grey area.)

18.Practice you take an instance?

Sure. Look at the district of Representative Terri Sewell, an Alabama Democrat. More 60 percent of her constituents are Black, almost a 3rd of the state'south Black population. The bulk of the state's remaining Black population is split — or "croaky" — among the Beginning, Second and Third Congressional Districts, all of which have been safely Republican for years.

Black voters in Alabama make upward roughly 25 percent of the land's population, and many civil rights leaders say the state should have ii majority-Blackness congressional districts.

In 2018, a group of Black voters filed a federal lawsuit arguing that the Alabama map violated the Voting Rights Act. They lost.

xix.Who likes this mode of doing things?

Many incumbents do, for starters. Property on to your job and political power is easier when you lot don't have to worry about a tough claiming from the other party.

But in districts that are safest in November, lawmakers are finding groovy challenges in primary campaigns. In those contests, the most devoted partisans are often the most important constituency. And appealing to them is pushing incumbents and primary challengers alike to the political fringes.

All of which ways that gerrymandering is fueling much of the polarization and extremism in American politics.

20.At that place'southward that word again — gerrymandering. Where did it come from?

Gamesmanship in the creation of legislative districts is nearly equally quondam as representative democracy itself. United kingdom of great britain and northern ireland had "rotten boroughs" for House of Commons constituencies until they were outlawed in 1832. In 1788, Gov. Patrick Henry of Virginia tried to deny his rival founding male parent James Madison a seat in Congress past cartoon a commune he wouldn't be able to win. (Madison won anyway.)

The word gerrymander arose merely in 1812, when Gov. Elbridge Gerry of Massachusetts presided over a new Country Senate map that kept the opposition Federalist Political party in the minority.

Elbridge Gerry's Map, 1812

Mr. Gerry had the special misfortune of angering an editor at The Boston Gazette, who captioned a cartoon depicting a salamander-like land legislative commune "The Gerry-mander. a new species of Monster." The name stuck, and, 2 centuries later, is synonymous with crooked maps fatigued for political reward.

21.What's different this yr?

The timetable, for one. Delays in the census caused a scramble in cartoon new districts, making it hard for incumbents and political newcomers to brand timely decisions on whether to run.

This is besides the first redistricting wheel without a protection under the Voting Rights Deed known equally "preclearance." For decades, that required states with a history of voting bigotry to get federal approval before irresolute their voting laws or cartoon new districts.

In 2013, the Supreme Court hollowed out the preclearance provision, leaving lawmakers in those states costless to draw maps equally they cull.

New maps could, of course, face legal challenges, merely those challenges accept time, and often neglect.

22.Where is gerrymandering the worst?

Conditions are ripe when ane political party controls both of a country's legislative chambers and the governor'south office. Republicans have consummate control over the redistricting process in 20 states, Democrats in 10 states.

That gives Republicans unimpeded power to draw 187 House districts, and Democrats 75.

Democrats are most concerned nigh potential Republican gerrymanders in Ohio, Texas, Florida, Georgia and North Carolina. Republicans are on baby-sit for Democratic gerrymanders in New York, Illinois, Oregon and Maryland.

23.Is in that location a fairer way to practice this?

The brusk answer: contained panels everywhere.

But at that place is wide disagreement over how dissimilar factors should be weighted, like geographic continuity, competitiveness, minority representation and partisan fairness.

How Independent Redistricting Panels Work

All independent panels are non equal. Some are made up of equal numbers of Republicans, Democrats and independents. Others characteristic a nonpartisan chair as a tiebreaker. Only all truly contained panels operate outside the legislature's influence, at to the lowest degree mitigating bias in favor of incumbents.

24.Is anyone pushing for that?

Democrats in Congress initially sought to require independent redistricting panels in every state as part of the For the People Act, an passenger vehicle voting pecker that failed this yr. Current proposals include banning partisan gerrymandering birthday and giving the courts greater ability to arbitrate, just whatsoever such changes would most likely require Democrats to overcome a Republican delay.

25.What can I do?

Offset thinking most 2030.

Command over redistricting hinges on command over land legislatures, which is determined in footling-watched elections that are eclipsed by presidential races and statewide contests for Senate and governor. The redistricting process itself tin can often be inverse but by a election initiative, which can have years — and a lot of people's fourth dimension and coin — to organize and laissez passer.

By the time the next redistricting bicycle comes around, the die will exist cast. Though naught can cease you from going to a public hearing on your state's new maps and giving the mapmakers a piece of your mind.

An earlier version of this article misstated the number of House seats for which Democrats command the redistricting procedure. It is 75, not 84.

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Source: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/11/07/us/politics/redistricting-maps-explained.html